[00:00:00] Narrator Globalization, geopolitical conflicts, climate change, and advancements in technology are making the biological threat landscape more complex than ever before. This is Countermeasures, where we explore health threats impacting communities around the world, brought to you by Emergent, a leading public health company that delivers protective and life-saving solutions to communities around the world. From zoonotic disease to bioweapons, orthopoxviruses, and more, we’ll explore what it means to protect public health and how preparedness today can lead to a safer tomorrow. In recent years, outbreaks of avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, have raised alarm around the world. Infections in wild birds and poultry are nothing new. But as the virus spreads into new species, including mammals, and as the pace of zoonotic spillover accelerates, experts warn the risk of human-to-human transmission is growing. At the same time, the world is still grappling with lessons from COVID-19. How do we prepare for the next outbreak? How do we detect it early enough to stop it from spreading? And how do we build resilience across human, animal, and environmental health systems? We begin with Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security. His career has been devoted to infectious disease and health security. Here he explains what drew him to the field and why avian influenza has long been on his radar.
[00:01:28] Dr. Amesh Adalja I sort of always loved infectious disease. I was the son of two physicians, so I was brought up around medicine. And within medicine, I think infectious disease as a career, especially when you’re thinking about health security, pandemic preparedness, emerging infectious disease, which is the focus of my work at the Center for Health Security, it really tries and to meld all of that together. There’s the medicine healthcare side of it, then there’s the national security aspects of it, then there’s the anthropology, the epidemiology. So it really keeps you kind of in touch with everything going on in the planet with respect to infectious disease and threats, because infectious disease is the only branch of medicine that affect impacts everyone and touches every aspect of life, as we saw during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the field of emerging infectious disease, it’s always something new that’s coming up, something coming down. It’s very dynamic. And there’s not always one that people keep an eye on. Try to keep an eye on the entire field and try to understand what might become a bigger infectious disease threats, if not the biggest that the human species has ever faced. I think that one is always going to be at the top of most people’s lists. And then all of the zoonotic infections that might be occurring and kind of each time they jump into humans, they might get a little bit further but then burn out.
[00:02:44] Narrator But what do emerging diseases such as avian influenza look like on the ground today? And why are scientists more concerned now than in the past? For that, we turn to Lindsey Shields, Deputy Director of PATH’s Epidemic Preparedness and Response Initiative.
[00:03:00] Lindsey Shields PATH is an international NGO that supports local organizations, government institutions, and international partners to achieve health equity and public health solutions for all. So I’ve been with PATH now for about six years, and our program really focuses on infectious disease surveillance programs. So, how do we ensure that we are capturing infectious disease outbreaks when they happen? How do we help country governments and local partners to respond to those disease outbreaks in a timely fashion? Hopefully to improve health for all. So most of our work is in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.
[00:03:32] Narrator From Lindsey’s perspective, two factors are driving this increased concern.
[00:03:38] Lindsey Shields Think about them in two buckets. One is sort of geography buckets where we’re looking at land use changes that are bringing humans and animals into closer contact. We have a globalized world and society. You can get from one side of the world to the other now in less than 24 hours. And that brings people closer together and also pathogens closer together. We also see viral evolution. And so you’re seeing over time, especially with influenza viruses, they’re able to change and mutate quickly, where that allows them to adapt to different species. So they’re able to test positive for strains of different types of viruses, including avian influenza. And what that means is every time they’re jumping into a new population, that virus is learning how to do a better job at infecting that other group, other species, other location. And so I think these two things together are really driving a lot of the escalation. And as we’re seeing transmission amongst mammals, certainly that’s something that we’re keeping an eye on and worrying about. Human-to-human transmission is always the thing that public health professionals are keeping the closest eye on when we think about emerging infectious diseases. And actually, history has shown us that oftentimes these viruses, especially those that are zoonotic in nature, will make an initial jump from an animal population to a human population, but they won’t have figured out how to transmit from human to another human. And so when you look at the history of these viruses, they are learning over time to adapt, to be better spreaders, to be better at infecting a human. And so once we start seeing that sustained human-to-human transmission in an emerging disease, that’s when we start to get really, really worried. With H5N1, for example, even influenza, we’re seeing that that is happening in more and more species, which means that virus is adapting and more and more likely to have sustained human-to-human transmission.
[00:05:17] Narrator Bird flu is evolving, but how do we even know when it’s happening? The key is surveillance, the early detection systems for diseases, similar to how smoke alarms warn of a fire. Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo, epidemiologist and director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University, explains why.
[00:05:37] Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo Early detection is absolutely critical. The single biggest thing we could do to be ready for future events is to have systems in place that detect them as soon as they happen, or in some cases, perhaps anticipate that they could happen so that we can just snap into action quickly and prevent the, you know, the disease, for instance, if we’re talking about an outbreak from really taking off and spreading, you know, beyond our abilities to control it. That the idea of being able to detect it early and to swiftly respond and contain it at its source is really, really key. That said, as important as early detection, early warning are, it’s not the only form of disease surveillance we need. We need the surveillance that enables us to make good decisions about what to do about the events that we detect. And that’s I think a piece where we really need to, you know, put some more emphasis and do some more work. During this last pandemic, the COVID-19 pandemic, there are a lot of questions about what to do and what strategies were the right ones and how we could best, you know, mitigate the spread and prevent people from becoming severely ill and dying. And so having better surveillance systems and better data collection efforts to answer those questions are just as important, I think, as early detection.
[00:06:50] Narrator Avian influenza doesn’t just require monitoring birds. Surveillance requires monitoring across species, from wild waterfowl to poultry to mammals, and finally to humans.
[00:07:02] Dr. Amesh Adalja Surveillance for avian influenza is very scattered and it’s kind of disparate because it’s not just one thing. It’s not just looking at human infections, it’s looking at infections in avian species. It’s looking at infections in mammals, it’s looking at infections in certain poultry species. And part of that’s going to involve a lot of work with the agriculture side and the veterinary side of this to see what’s making animals sick, surveying flu viruses that are constantly circulating in waterfowl or constantly circulating in swine. And then when we think about human infections, making sure, particularly with severe infections or infections in individuals who have epidemiological exposures of certain animals, that we’re trying to figure out what type of influenza A is it? Is it something novel? Being able to run that down. And oftentimes I find that our healthcare system, the ability to run down an infectious disease to a very specific diagnosis is really lacking. It doesn’t happen very often. People will stop at influenza A versus influenza B, or maybe they figure out it’s an H1N1 versus an H3N2 influenza, but there’s not much incentive to go further. And I think that’s one of the areas where when you think about avian influenza, our surveillance needs to be better. We need to be looking, I think a lot deeper to try and understand how frequently these viruses are jumping into humans and how frequently we’re missing them when they do. Because I think when there is an avian influenza pandemic, these first cases are likely to be missed. They’re likely to be mixed in with other respiratory viruses, other influenza cases. And so I think that the surveillance is something that’s been really lacking. It’s been lacking for a long time, and it’s and it continues to lack. Not because we don’t have technological solutions. It’s just that it’s not set up in a way that we’re able to do this in a really proactive manner.
[00:08:46] Narrator As Amesh mentioned, proper surveillance requires an integrated system between agriculture, animal health, and human medicine. Spillover can happen outside of isolated environments like laboratories. It can happen in common environments like farms, markets, and even within households. Lindsey describes what those spillover points can look like and why they matter.
[00:09:10] Lindsey Shields Vietnam, we took some of these participants to a few areas and had them sort of think about where are the interactions between these different species, wildlife, humans, and livestock. And the first was a farm area, right? A beautiful farm. They were raising, I think, chickens and ducks. But it was outside farming, right? And so that meant that we also were seeing wild birds coming in and grazing in the same lands that these ducks were grazing. And that that creates that spillover potential between the wild, the wild birds that host many of these avian influenza viruses and the livestock that are then in very close contact with people. We also took them to live animal market. These are extremely common all around the world. And it is a wonderful place for potential viral spread and spillover because you have animals in close conditions. Many times these animals are stressed and or immunocompromised. And when we see that happening in animals, they’re more likely to be shedding viruses, they’re more likely to get sick. And you’re also exposing people to animal processing in some places where they may be slaughtering the animals there. And again, that’s another place where you’ll see that potential for spillover. Literature reviews and research has definitely shown that the most common spillover from animals to humans often happens in that butchering step when you are most risk, most at risk for perhaps cutting the animal and then accidentally cutting your own skin and really injecting yourself with something. And that can all be managed through appropriate biosecurity measures. Are you washing your hands? Are you handling the knives correctly and safely? Do you have veterinarians present supporting slaughterhouse evaluations so that you can identify those potentially ill animals? And so I think there is really a need, especially for zoonotic spillover events to have strong collaboration between your human health sector, which is maybe going to be the first responders to see some of these novel diseases in human populations and the animal health specialists who are going to be able to recognize what they’re seeing in the animal populations.
[00:11:09] Narrator Farms, markets, and slaughterhouses are front lines for potential outbreaks. The information generated by surveillance or the information we fail to generate helps determine how fast we can respond. Dr. Nuzzo explains why disease surveillance gaps are not just national problems, but global ones.
[00:11:28] Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo Surveillance has changed a lot since I got into this field, you know, several decades ago. I think there have been some really key improvements, but there’s also a lot of challenges. So when we’re talking about surveillance, we are largely talking about what happens at the national level, right? Countries are ultimately responsible for what happens within their borders. They are people who are elected to run countries, they’re responsible to the people who elect them. So we talk about national surveillance. Now, in a place like the United States, national surveillance may be deeply dependent on and frankly contingent on there being state and local surveillance because we are a federal country, the constitutional responsibility for public health rests with states. So states conduct surveillance and we roll that information up to the national level. When we talk about global surveillance, what we’re really talking about is countries deciding to share information so that we can get a global picture of what is happening. And that’s really, really key, particularly when you’re dealing with something that’s global in nature, like a pandemic. You need to know not just what’s happening in your own country, but possibly what’s happening in the countries that neighbor you or in countries where your citizens may be traveling to and from. So global surveillance is also important. But, you know, national surveillance can’t happen without local surveillance. Global surveillance can’t happen with national surveillance. So we need strong capacities at the local level and the national level. And there is still a lot of work that needs to be done in countries all over the world in terms of being able to do that.
[00:12:58] Narrator Some communities may face higher risk of spillover because of factors such as geography, farming practices, or weaker health systems. Other places may lack the resources to detect and respond quickly. Lindsey says this is why the idea of One Health, linking human, animal, and environmental health systems, has become so important.
[00:13:18] Lindsey Shields I love the question about what is One Health because depending on who you talk to, it can mean a whole lot of different things. I think the classic way that One Health has been interpreted is often related to zoonotic diseases, right? And it’s really like animal and human health, and how do we work together across those two sectors to make it better? And that really neglects the third piece of this. It’s really animal, human, and environmental health because all three of those sectors are intricately intertwined. You affect the health of one of those three areas and it will have impacts on the other two. We see this often with climate change, with the changing patterns of climate in various locations. You end up having different types of diseases emerging. You have different types of challenges emerging. We’re seeing higher rates of diseases associated with pollution, we’re seeing higher rates of arboviral diseases with increases in the mosquito population. And so I think infectious diseases is a great example of how One Health is used, but One Health itself is really understanding that human environmental and animal health is intricately intertwined and that you must be taking into account the health of each of them in order to address the health overall.
[00:14:28] Narrator But establishing a One Health approach means addressing barriers both formal and informal to collaboration. Lindsey says progress is happening, but that it can be uneven.
[00:14:40] Lindsey Shields The barriers to integration and collaboration between human and animal health. There’s sort of the formal barriers and then there’s the informal barriers. The formal barriers are often, you know, there’s some need to have a formal standard operating procedure or a plan for how you’re going to connect. There’s in some countries, that means there’s a national One Health platform set up so that you start having routine meetings and the sharing of data happens more naturally. Sometimes that means, you know, joint response activities. So in some countries, there are actually One Health rapid response teams that when a zoonotic disease outbreak has occurred, they will actually send representatives from both animal health and human health to that location to be able to respond to it. That’s sort of the formal barriers. And I think countries are really starting to put more time and effort into that. You’re seeing national One Health action plans being prepared, you’re seeing One Health woven into their national health security plans as well. Then I think there’s the informal barriers, and that’s the one that I think is most interesting to see coming around over time. And that’s especially in a local setting. If you have the if you have figured out ways to lower the barriers for communication. Just to pick up the phone and call the animal health person. If you’re aware of, hey, we just had a case of anthrax come into our hospital. Let me just call up my friend who’s not now, you know, this formal communication mechanism and give them a heads up that something is happening. I think this removal of those barriers for informal communication can be really helpful. We’ve seen that happen in some places where, you know, there’s a fora that happens, either a community of practice around One Health that brings together people from different sectors once a month, once a quarter. And in those areas, we just see a lot more willingness to kind of share information and share data, even in an informal setting, because there’s that personal relationship.
[00:16:26] Narrator Breaking down silos is one part of the preparedness equation. Another is resources. Lindsey warns that without equity and surveillance and preparedness, global health security will remain fragile.
[00:16:39] Lindsey Shields I think there’s been a lot of progress over the last decade or so on surveillance systems, whether it’s a high-income country, a low-income country, or a global or regional initiative. A couple that come to mind that have been around for quite some time is called GOARN, which is the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network. This is a really great human health focused organization that helps to identify disease outbreaks and and respond in a coordinated fashion. On the animal health side, there is also GLEWS, which is the Global Early Warning System. And that also allows capture of infectious disease outbreaks in the animal population.
[00:17:15] Narrator The COVID-19 pandemic exposed many of these gaps. Lindsey reflects on what preparedness looks like today and why preparedness projects can often lose funding between crises.
[00:17:28] Lindsey Shields We often have a hard time getting funding for preparedness because it’s much easier to be responsive to something. Outbreak response, it’s very clear we have an outbreak, we need to respond to it. It’s really hard to track, categorize, and understand the impact of the work that we do in preparedness because you don’t have the outbreak that occurs as a result. And so I think it’s really critical that investment in preparedness is increased and sustained over time. Historically, what we see in preparedness investments is very much cyclical. You’ll see an outbreak of a major disease happening, you’ll see an influx of substantial funding to address that disease that then transitions into recovery and then preparedness. And then over time that kind of peters out. And then all of a sudden you have the next outbreak, and everyone goes, didn’t we do this a year ago? Didn’t we plan for this? And so the preparedness piece is really, really critical. And I think a lot can be done to leverage the One Health approach in order to be prepared for pandemics or for emerging diseases in general.
[00:18:26] Narrator For Jennifer, the lesson is not only about funding, but about trust and communication.
[00:18:34] Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo So, I mean, first of all, trust isn’t built in the midst of an emergency. You have to build trust in advance of an emergency. And part of making sure that people trust government or trust, you know, the recommendations being made is about showing up in people’s lives in a meaningful and productive and welcome way in advance of an emergency. One of the kind of things that really stuck with me during the COVID-19 pandemic, and I, you know, was fortunate to be able to talk to really hundreds of maybe even more people from all walks of life, you know, all sorts of people during the COVID-19 pandemic and learn a lot from those conversations. But at the beginning, you know, I was hearing a lot from people. They would ask all these really thoughtful questions and they’d be really distressed. And, you know, very frequently I would hear them say to me, oh, I just don’t know who to trust.
[00:19:23] Narrator Lindsey highlights some of the scientific advances and global initiatives that could make a difference for the next outbreak.
[00:19:32] Lindsey Shields In order to be prepared for pandemics or for emerging diseases in general. I think one of the things that came out of the COVID-19 pandemic that I think is really positive is the 100 days mission. You know, CEPI is really driving the charge on this, but the 100 days mission is basically saying we want to get vaccine to disease outbreaks of novel viruses sooner. So there’s a lot of learning going on right now of how do we decrease the barriers from you’ve identified a new novel disease to we are rolling out a new vaccine that can actually address it. And I think COVID-19 put a ton of pressure globally on people to think more strategically. We had massive advances in rapid diagnostic testing. We had rapid advances in the types and styles of vaccines available. And I think those learnings need to be utilized as we start preparing for the next one. Yeah, I think public health, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, we learned a lot about how we need to be better communicators. People in public health tend to be very technical in nature. We love talking about epidemiology and getting really into the weeds about all these different things. But the general public needs clear messaging and they need to be able to understand how it relates to them. And so as we’re thinking about messaging around public health, One Health, and pandemic threats, I think we need to do a better job of being able to tell a story that is directly applicable or relatable to the general public.
[00:20:55] Narrator And for Lindsey, there is an optimism in how the scientific community continues to adapt to get ahead of outbreaks.
[00:21:04] Lindsey Shields The Vietnam work, I think, was really exciting because we were looking at how to improve community-based surveillance. So people who are maybe community health workers, they may not actually have access to diagnostic tools, etc., but they were trained on specific events that would trigger a response or trigger an outbreak investigation. Historically, that had only include human health signals, right? Somebody’s got a weird fever or somebody’s really sick, or a school has a bunch of kids that are out sick suddenly. And what we did was we actually incorporated training for also understanding when to notify on animal health events that might have really strong impacts, right? A sudden illness in a flock of birds or, you know, cow found dead, right? These would be some other examples of things that would trigger a response. Now, especially at the community level, people have very differing levels of education. They may not actually have, you know, to that point about technical people being very technical. We utilized a combination of brief trainings that were rolled out at subnational level, but also images that were not required to have very that didn’t require a lot of words and require people to know how to read. So you would see the image and you would understand, okay, this is the type of event that I would need to report on. And so I think looking at modifying our communication methods to be more responsive to where the community is really critical. And that allowed then, you know, rural communities in Vietnam to start reporting suspected cases of illness that could be anything ranging from anthrax to avian influenza to something else that could be both a threat to that livestock population, but also a critical threat to the human population in the community.
[00:22:46] Narrator As we’ve heard, surveillance, One Health, preparedness, and communication are not luxuries. They are necessities. The expertise of Amesh, Lindsey, and Jennifer show us that science and systems matter, but so do relationships, trust, and persistence. We can’t predict exactly where the next spillover will occur, or which virus will trigger the next pandemic. But we can prepare. And the more we invest in preparedness today, the better chance we have of tackling the next public health threat. Thank you for listening to this episode of Countermeasures. If you enjoyed this episode, please consider leaving a rating or review.